Cooking, Food & Wine

3 month CPI breakthrough 5% be the probability of the event, as the international political situation and Japan's nuclear crisis, upward price pressures in the future. Published by the Central Bank survey showed that 2-quarter think more consumption more cost-effective ratio of 14.2%, create the data since the publication of a new low.

concern of food beverage child industry in the, production and marketing volume growth most fast of three a industry respectively for liquor, and wine and frozen flour food, second for liquid milk and the dairy products, again for beer and slaughter industry; production and marketing volume growth has may decline of industry for liquor, may improve of industry has wine and beer industry, and early basic flat of industry has dairy industry, and frozen flour products and slaughter industry.

cost pressure on food and beverage industry, various industries through the transfer of price rising cost pressures, but the liquor industry especially high-end liquor still has the ability to continue to improve gross margins, wine followed, price increases are passive digestion and rising costs in other industries, probability drop in profitability.

food and beverage industry TTM earnings from a historical average of view, still in the lower position, but food and drink industry valuations relative to the overall market for 1.99 times times, still higher than the average since 2003. From a valuation perspective only: industry to fall in the short term is limited, but significant pressure to outperform larger, given the industry "neutral" rating. The industry valuations in the sort, the liquor industry lowest valuations.

with the growth of economic development and social wealth, upscale, luxury development is a natural thing, but as the inhabitants ' income structure more rational, such as low income, social security of workers in rising, mid-range consumer goods will usher in a golden age for the entire market capacity expansion; along with the gradual decline of the inflation in the three or four quarter consumer willingness is enhanced. We judge the probability of a second-quarter industry outperform much, but if it fell in the second quarter, will be the better buy points during the year.

attention to policy benefit: recommended *ST Queen, yanjing beer (000729, unit) (season is approaching + valuations are not high) and double sinks shares (investment opportunities for chaodie after opening).

focus on inflation: considering the effect of inflation and earnings and growth of the match, liquor industry concern, especially the line liquors, recommended wuliangye (000858, unit), Luzhou laojiao (000568, unit) and Shanxi fenjiu.